|Posted by Conspiracy Cafe on March 25, 2020 at 10:05 AM|
There could be at least 3 latent stages to Covid-19. It's these quiet stages that lull us into a false sense of security.
Note, reinfection isn't scientifically proven yet. The main evidence is from doctors in China who've made that conjecture. The closest discussion I've seen on this was here: https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f67fan/reinfection_with_same_strain_producing_severe/ But it needed better references from the OP for that evidence based thread.
So, take this with a grain of salt and comment if there's evidence for and against anything here. Remember that this is just discussion at this stage.
//Please help me to update this post with TBC (To be completed) sections and references to the secondary infection paper and latency evidence. I'll go back through my research and try to update references after work but if you have a reference please let me know. There are other subreddits that have different focuses on this virus to investigate.//
Stage 1) You first get infected. You might get mild symptoms in your respiratory tract. Maybe a sore throat. Maybe a dry cough. Some people get it worse at this stage but 80-90% walk it off.
Suggested transmission scenarios at this point: You cough into your hand. You handle cash, passing droplets onto it. The cashier takes your cash. Person receiving money is wearing a mask but wipes sleepy dust away from their eye and gets infected.
There is now a large window that lulls us into a false sense of security. We think this lasts for *TBC* days on average. Anal swabs at this point might not detect much.
Stage 2) Your immune system fights off the infection in the upper part of your body. The virus moves to the lower part. It's infecting ACE2 but it's new reservoir is the gastrointestinal tract. You get mild diarrhea. It smells bad but you don't really mind. You've had Bali belly before.
Suggested transmission scenario at this point: You flush a squat toilet with no lid. As evidenced by the smell, there's a chance of droplets and even aeroisation. The virus lands on surfaces like the toilet door handle in a public bathroom and a toothbrush at home. It travels through a drainage pipe as we saw with SARS in Hong Kong.
Stage 3) You recover without any assistance. You still have some of the virus left in key ACE2 receptor areas of your body but you're slowly flushing it out.
Stage 4) Now your antibodies reduce. This is key. There is now a lag time to the next stage. You're uninfected but vulnerable. How long this lasts is anyone's guess.
Stage 5) You get reinfected. But this time the virus is ***slightly different***. The body produces the same antibodies as before but this time this only makes things worse by assisting the virus to enter even immune cells. As with Dengue, everyone's immune system is different. This is where having a strong immune system could be a problem. In some people's bodies more and more of the same is produced forming a Cytokine storm. The immune system is damaging your own body.
At this stage you need something to suppress that immune system. You need oxygen. And you also need something to treat the virus since your immune system is attacking it as if it were like the previous infection.
To be clear, at this point your live or die shopping list is:
- an antiviral. There are >100 in trials
- an **immune suppressant.** This seems key. Perhaps different immune suppressants act in different ways. AFAIK this is a key area right now in China. It's an area we don't really hear about
Symptoms progress much faster in stage 5. Sites of the body with ACE2 are most vulnerable. These sites are: kidneys, lungs, heart, testes, eyes, TBC
Stage 6) The immune system is busy fighting the infection. You get another infection. Could be TB. Could be just a common cold. But this secondary infection is the final knockout. Doctors have been prescribing antibiotics to prevent this before any other infection is even detected.
Less specialist things that might also help at this stage could be:
- cleaning the lungs. Don't lie flat with neumonia. Inhalable antiviral?
- cleaning the digestive system. Antibiotic to prevent further infection? Very strong probiotics? Assist a weak patient to poo?
To get a handle on this virus I we need to think in terms of:
reservoir areas of the lungs and digestive system, especially in terms of testing. THERE'S MORE THAN ONE AREA OF INFECTION
Latent stages. THERE'S MORE THAN ONE STAGE.
Reinfection and multi variants. THERE'S MORE THAN ONE VIRUS.
This is why China is experiencing meltdown right now. The genetic theory that maybe it affects Asians more is partially disproven in a preprint paper. The only reason outside China is OK right now is the MANY lag periods, which no one is accounting for. Cases from the cruise ships and outside China are now pointing to exponential spread and if non Chinese react as we think then the 2nd infection knock out will be just as bad as China. We've seen some evidence for this in places outside of China now.