|Posted by George Freund on September 27, 2016 at 9:55 PM|
By Allen Cone | Sept. 26, 2016 at 2:28 PM
WASHINGTON, Sept. 26 (UPI) -- Donald Trump would earn enough votes to win the presidency in the Electoral College based on UPI/CVoter's state tracking poll released Monday.
Trump would amass 292 votes and Clinton would get 246 with 270 needed to secure the oval office.
But the candidates' leads are narrow enough -- 5 percent or less -- in 12 states to classify them as swing states, meaning 156 electoral votes could be up for grabs.
If the battleground states are not counted, the race would be tied 191-191.
Just one swing state -- Florida with 29 votes -- could shift to give Clinton easily enough Electoral College votes to win, 275-263. Or switching Pennsylvania with 20 votes and Virginia with 13 would having her prevailing even more, 279-259.
Each candidate leads in six of the 12 battleground states.
Trump leads in Florida (1.8 percent), Iowa (2 percent), North Carolina (2.5 percent), Ohio (1 percent), Pennsylvania (1.3 percent) and Virginia (3.4 percent).
Clinton is ahead in Colorado (3.5 percent), Michigan (4.4 percent), Minnesota (4.0 percent), Nevada (0.5 percent), New Hampshire (0.9 percent) and Wisconsin (3.4 percent).
Nationwide, Clinton's biggest leads are in the District of Columbia (66.2 percent) and Hawaii (31.5 percent).
For Trump, his biggest advantages are in Utah (38.4 percent) and Wyoming (36 percent).
All states except Nebraska and Maine award all of their votes to the winning candidate. Nebraska and Maine allocate two Electoral Votes to the popular vote winner, and then one each to the popular vote winner in each congressional district (two in Maine, three in Nebraska) in their state.
Since the congressional district breakdown wasn't available, Trump was allocated all of Nebraska's votes and Clinton earned all of Maine's votes based on their overall polling in the states.
The poll was conducted Sept. 12-25 among likely voters. The poll is tracking 250 likely voters in each state every week, leading to a state representative sample size of 500 voters. In all, the poll covered about 25,000 samples over two weeks.
Because the poll is conducted online and individuals self-select to participate, a margin of error cannot be calculated. The poll has a credibility interval of 3 percentage points.
In the daily nationwide UPI/CVoter tracking poll released Monday, Clinton and Trump are in a virtual tie. The online poll shows Clinton with 47.81 percent, compared with Trump's 47.14 percent, a difference of 0.67 percent.
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